People in the US are dying at higher rates than in other similar high-income countries, and that difference is only growing. That's the key finding of a new study that I published in the journal PLOS ONE.
In 2021, more than 892,000 of the 3,456,000 deaths the US experienced, or about 1 in 4, were "excess deaths."
In 2019, that number was 483,000 deaths, or nearly 1 in 6. That represents an 84.9 percent increase in excess deaths in the US between 2019 and 2021.
Excess deaths refer to the actual number of deaths that occur in a given year compared with expected deaths over that same time period based on prior years or, as in this study, in other countries.
In my study, I compared the number of US deaths with those in the five largest countries in Western Europe: England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Those five countries make for a good comparison because they are nearly, if not quite, as wealthy as the US and their combined population is similar in size and diversity to the US population.
I also chose those countries because they were used in an earlier study from another research team that documented a 34.5 percent increase in excess deaths in the US between 2000 and 2017.
The acceleration of this already alarming long-term trend in excess deaths in the US was exacerbated by the fact that the US experienced higher death rates from COVID-19 compared with similar countries.
However, COVID-19 alone does not account for the recent increase in the number of excess deaths in the US relative to comparison countries.
Why it matters
Rising living standards and medical advances through the 20th century have made it possible for people in wealthy countries to live longer and with a better quality of life.
Given that the US is the largest economic power in the world, with cutting-edge medical technology, Americans should have an advantage over other countries in terms of life span and death rates.
But in the last 50 years, many countries around the world have outpaced the US in how fast death rates are declining, as revealed by trends in life expectancy.
Life expectancy is an average age at death, and it represents how long an average person is expected to live if current death rates remain unchanged throughout that person's lifetime.
Life expectancy is based on a complex combination of death rates at different ages, but in short, when death rates decline, life expectancy increases.
Compared to about 20 other high-income countries, since around the mid-1970s the US life expectancy has been slipping from about the middle, or median, to the lowest rungs of life expectancy. So the relative stagnation in life expectancy in the US compared with other countries is directly related to the fact that death rates have also declined more slowly in the US.
The US has higher death rates than its peer countries due to a variety of causes.
Cardiovascular disease prevalence has been an important driver of life expectancy changes across the globe in recent decades. But while death rates from cardiovascular disease have continued to decline in other parts of the world, those rates have stagnated in the US.
A key reason for this trend is the rise in obesity, as research shows that obesity increases the risk of death from cardiovascular disease. High prevalence of obesity in the US also likely contributed to the relatively high death rates from COVID-19.
Another cause is that the US has disproportionately high death rates from intentional injuries in the form of homicides, in particular those caused by firearms. Moreover, it also has high death rates from unintentional injuries, in particular drug overdoses.
What other research is being done
While these specific causes of deaths should clearly be health policy priorities today, there might be more fundamental causes to the elevated US death rates.
In the early 1990s, young people in the US between the ages of 15 and 34 were already dying at higher rates than their peers in other countries from a combination of homicides, unintentional injuries – in large part from motor vehicle accidents – and deaths from HIV/AIDS.
Research is underway to understand the more fundamental societal causes that may explain the vulnerability of the US population to successive epidemics, from HIV/ AIDS and COVID-19 to gun violence and opioid overdoses.
These include racial and economic inequalities, which combined with a weaker social security net and lack of health care access for all may help explain larger health and death disparities compared to European countries.