Sometimes it seems like there's no end to the catastrophic dangers we face as a species.
Nuclear armageddon. Climate change. Pandemics. AI. Supervolcanoes. The list is a long one.
But if all hell really does break loose and some kind of unprecedented global disaster strikes, where would you go?
What would be the safest place to seek shelter, to lay low and ride out the storm, and hopefully survive to see a brighter day?
In the first study of its kind, published in Global Challenges, scientists have identified what appears to be the overall safest place in the world in the event of an unmitigated calamity.
"Australia is likely the most resilient place on Earth when it comes to global catastrophic risks," researchers explain in a paper led by first author and environmental scientist Florian Ulrich Jehn from the University of Hagen in Germany.
But before you book a ticket and start packing your bags, know this.
Even Australia isn't completely safe from global catastrophic risks (GCRs), the researchers warn – it's just the place least exposed overall to the spectrum of potential threats staring us down.
In their study, Jehn and fellow researchers reviewed the scientific literature on GCRs, assessing hundreds of studies and reports on the impacts of disasters such as asteroids striking Earth, volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks, disease threats, and more.
According to the researchers, GCRs generally come in three broad types.
Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios (ASRS) are events that suddenly block out sunlight, due to volcanic eruptions, nuclear winters, or asteroid impact clouds.
Events that disrupt societal systems are called Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss (GCIL), leading to disruptions to electricity, transport, and food production. This could result from geomagnetic storms, cyber attacks, pandemics, and High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulses (HEMP).
A third kind is Global Catastrophic Biological Risk (GCBR), reserved for large-scale biological hazards, whether natural or human-made, that result in mass casualties and severe societal disruption on a continental to global scale.
In addition to classifying the risk categories, the researchers also examined research on resilience, which in this context means a society's capacity to maintain critical functions and human welfare in the face of severe disruptions triggered by these kinds of catastrophes, based on specific geographical, institutional, and infrastructural factors.
The researchers say countries tend to be more resilient to GCRs overall if they are: democratic; wealthier; have lower inequality; have a large industrial base, with high governmental influence; are located in remote locations, like large islands; have higher decentralization and diversity; and are not highly reliant on trade, or have geographically close trading partners.
With all those factors in mind, in the face of the three key categories of GCRs, Australia stands out in the published research on this topic, due to its geographical isolation, food production, fossil fuel resources, and industrial capacity, among several other factors.
"No single place on Earth is resilient against all global catastrophic risks, but Australia is the country most frequently identified as resilient," the researchers explain.
"Even this country, however, is vulnerable to specific hazards and dependent on continued international trade for fuel, medicine, and fertilizer."
In the researchers' analysis, Australia was the only country directly identified as resilient against all three kinds of GCRs, but strengths in some contexts often become weaknesses against some threats, which is a key theme in the team's review.
In Australia's case, its large island status gives it considerable protection from some risks, but also makes it more reliant on international trade systems to function for importation of certain critical goods.
Overall, despite the problems Australia faces, scientists tend to identify it as the most resilient nation on the planet in the context of GCRs.
"Although Australia has obvious problems with the consequences of climate change, it fares well in our assessment," says Jehn.
"It's an island, so it can more easily shut itself off and isolate itself. Australia produces an incredible amount of food, has a large domestic industry and mining sector. It's also wealthy and a fairly stable democracy – all things that make a country more resilient."
After Australia, other nations identified as resilient include New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, and Argentina, but the researchers also say many of these countries are vulnerable to specific hazards, even if other factors are in their favor.
"All of the most mentioned countries except Switzerland have long coastlines which could be impacted by tsunamis from a near-Earth object," the study authors write.
"All except Switzerland could be impacted by one of the several volcanoes in South-East Asia and South America erupting, as Tambora did in 1815. All are reliant on trade. There is no place on Earth which is a complete refuge from GCR."
Related: The World Is Not Ready For The Next Super-Eruption, Scientists Warn
Looking to the future, the researchers say the identification of structurally resilient states like Australia and New Zealand could make them suitable as anchor points supporting global resilience efforts.
For example, they could host food stockpiles or seed banks, and their industrial capacity could help them to keep functioning in the face of a global catastrophe, making them good headquarters to mount an international response to whatever disaster has befallen us.
The most important point is to be prepared, the researchers say. Sometimes these things are right around the corner.
"Prevention is always preferable to resilience," the authors explain.
"Some GCRs, like volcanic eruptions, cannot currently be prevented. When they occur, the difference between societies that have invested in the factors identified here and those that have not will be measured in lives."
The findings are reported in Global Challenges.
This article was fact-checked by Fiona MacDonald and edited by Fiona MacDonald. While we pride ourselves on our process, we are only human. If you spot a mistake, please let us know.